It took me a while to write this because I spent most of the morning trying to stand up a broom while searching the television for insight on NASA’s mysterious cloud generation machine and the chemicals the weather control experiments. Ok, I usually hate sarcasm, but conspiracy theories are so rampant these days that I couldn’t resist.
The latest one making the rounds on my social media feeds is a YouTube “documentary” called Plandemic. I wasn’t even aware of it until a Facebook friend shared it yesterday. Another friend then messaged me asking for my opinion about it, and it immediately didn’t pass my smell test.
A biologist disinfecting the COVID-19 screening-point at the entrance of the Pasteur Institute , in ... [+]
According to Derek Beres’ blog “The Anti-Vaxx agenda of Plandemic,” my smell test detector didn’t let me down. The video, which continues to be taken down by social media sites, features an activist, Judy Mikovits, and lots of disingenuous information. Beres writes, “This agenda-based film features contradictory evidence and false claims while being championed as a beacon of truth.” At least it is a non-partisan pile of misinformation as both conservative and liberal friends seem to be sharing it. According to the BBC, other conspiracy theories linked to religious groups, software moguls and immigration have been propagated by extreme political tribes. Honestly, I will leave it to folks like Beres and the numerous other outlets to debunk video. My goal is to explore why people are more enamored with conspiracy theories than science.
Yourbias.is is a website that defines cognitive biases. It discusses something called belief bias: “If a conclusion supports your existing beliefs, you'll rationalize anything that supports it.” My hypothesis is that science, personal circumstances and the economic distress of the coronavirus pandemic are so overwhelming that people seek alternative realities as some type of rationalization or “soothing balm.” Some even may grasp them because it is more understandable than the graphic, exponential talk, and so forth. However, actual science says there is more to the story.
A 2015 study presented at the Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on World Wide Web discussed a new way of predicting viral misinformation spread on social media. The study reveals that spreading rate, probability to verify a hoax, gullibility, and a person’s belief system are key factors. However, forgetting probability and gullibility were the primary reasons stuff like “Plandemic” can take root and thrive. A 2019 study in the Journal of Personality surveyed over 1600 people and found that belief in fake news is mostly driven by the inability to reject weak claims. The study authors referred to that tendency as “reflexive open‐mindedness.”
AUSTIN, TEXAS - APRIL 25: Protestors gather outside the Texas State Capitol during a rally calling ... [+]
While the aforementioned studies are published in the scholarly literature, my experiences as a meteorology professor, atmospheric scientist, and former NASA scientist have revealed some more “common sense” reasons. I hear all types of wacky theories and narratives about climate change or why people don’t evacuate from a hurricane. My 25+ years of doing science, testifying before Congress, and monitoring social media have also revealed the following factors in why people migrate to conspiracy theories:
- Lack of or failure to apply critical thinking skills
- Dunning-Kruger Effect (overestimate of one’s knowledge of particular topics)
- Healthy skepticism because of previous events (See Tuskegee Syphilis Experiments)
- Sharing content without reading it and the inability to grasp the credibility of the source (Everything on the Internet is credible, right?)
- False equivalency. While healthy skepticism and careful thought should be always be given in science, many people mistakenly give equal weight to counter arguments when there is often a clear consensus on the other side. I see this all of the time with the climate change discussion. My Forbes colleague Stephanie Sarkis writes an excellent piece on false equivalency.
I am always amused at how many of the odd conspiracy theories or viral claims seem to be linked to NASA. I can only conclude that the conspiracy originators view NASA as viewed as a credible source. I am surprised that the Plandemic documentary didn’t interview a disgruntled former NASA scientist instead. I think this actual medical doctor’s reaction to Plandemic (see this link) sums it up for many of us.
