DALLAS, TEXAS - AUGUST 06: Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at the Conservative Political ... [+]
If you could speak to five million people or 83 million people, which would you pick?
Let’s say you were running for political office. You could grab a megaphone that is the size of your index finger and watch as a few hundred people follow your posts. Or you could pick up a megaphone the size of Texas and reach a bigger audience (e.g., millions).
That’s the rather easy decision facing Donald Trump right now.
The former commander-in-chief was reinstated on Twitter just this weekend, and he now has the ability to make a significant impact on the thoughts and actions of his many followers. Or he can keep using Truth Social. (If you believe this report, only 10% of his supporters are on Truth Social with five million, leaving out 45 million.)
I will say this: I kind of hate the app. It feels like you are at a local cult gathering where everyone is spouting the same viewpoints back and forth. I’m not revealing anything about my political views when I say that Truth Social is one-sided and politically motivated. That does not make it a good app (or even part of a good business strategy).
I’ll even say that Trump choosing Truth Social as a political move could lead to a total drubbing during the inevitable Republican debates. Do you want him to be elected? Become a champion for him to start tweeting again. It literally got him elected last time. Want him to stay out of the running? Maybe it’s time to create a Truth Social account and create the illusion of growth on that app.
If Trump decides to stick with his own bread and butter (e.g., Truth Social), he might as well start planning for his retirement years now. (By the way, according to an SEC filing, Trump has to wait six hours to repost anything from Truth Social on another platform.)
The technology decisions candidates make can impact an election.
Back when Obama was running for office the first time, it was technology that made a huge difference, partly with how he used the web and email, but to some extent he was able to mobilize his campaign on social media even as it was entering the public discourse a decade ago. It was such a major shift in how politics work that people have written research papers about it.
In politics, you have to enter the conversation where most people are talking. You have to make sure you are sticking with what is trending, one way or another.
An app like Truth Social won’t really help you reach the undecided or those who have wandered over to another candidate. Trump would reach his loyalists only.
So here’s my prediction.
Trump will start tweeting. And that will be what ultimately breaks Truth Social.
Why bother using it anymore if the only reason it existed in the first place is because the main artery of conversation was closed off? And also because the main artery for conversation was not owned by Elon Musk?
So watch this space.
Trump will start tweeting. He’ll amass a new following.
Truth Social will become a minor blip in his political career.
