Will influencers sway the 2020 election via social media?
"Influencers" on social media aren't just plugging products and building brand awareness. Social media influencers could be crucial to winning the White House in November. It isn't just those influencers with hundreds of thousands of followers that are being courted by candidates to help sway voters, as increasingly "micro-influencers" – those individuals who may have a mere few thousand engaged social media followers – are being courted to help build momentum for a campaign.
This isn't new to 2020, and as a recent story from Reuters noted, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee called upon paid influencers to spread "get out the vote" messaging, while progressive political action committee (PAC) NextGen America has reportedly recruited hundreds of Instagram micro-influencers. The goal is to simply get more people in the ballot booth.
"The issue with any election isn't just who votes for whom, it is getting people out to vote in the first place," said technology industry analyst Rob Enderle, principal analyst at the Enderle Group.
"People have to be motivated to stand in line to vote in most states – Washington is apparently going to try voting from Smartphones," added Enderle.
Digital Grassroots
Whether called a micro or "nano-influencer," these are those individuals with somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000 followers on such social media services as Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube. Courting these individuals allows a campaign to reach a segment of the population who may be turned off to politics and who may not be inclined to vote.
In many cases, these influencers may not even support a candidate but rather may rally behind a cause – such as climate control or immigration reform.
"Social Media influencers, the good ones, have the skill set of getting people pissed off and people that become passionate will take action, if they are fired up to show up to public displays of support or displeasure they can be fired up to vote," explained Enderle. "They are basically a huge force multiplier and may be the people that effectively decide the next election."
Candidates are hiring influencers as a way to reach an audience that they might not otherwise be able to connect to, and this could be why Mike Bloomberg reportedly reached out to food and travel blogger Alycia Chrosniak, who has some 3,500 followers.
The former New York City mayor offered $150 to Chrosniak, which she told Reuters she declined – citing that he wasn't her "top choice" candidate. The question is whether other influencers will be so noble in turning down money. The other question is whether those influencers that are paid by a campaign will actually disclose such a fact?
As it now stands, U.S. Federal Election Commission rules do not explicitly address the role of social media influencers, but in the case of a paid endorsement it is another issue entirely. The rules say that any public online communication that advocate for the election of a candidate – or even defeat of a political rival – for a fee must include a disclaimer to inform who paid for the content.
A New Disinformation Campaign
The other part of this is whether social media could have the potential to be part of another disinformation campaign. This is something potential voters are taking seriously.
According to a PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll conducted in January about a third of Americans said misleading stories on social media pose the biggest threat to the safety of U.S. elections, and a majority said that spotting the difference between "fact and false information" that appears on social media is increasingly difficult. The survey found that few even have confidence that the technology companies can even prevent the misuse of social media to influence this year's elections.
It may not just be the candidates that could utilize social media influencers in this election cycle either. Earlier this month, FBI Director Christopher Wray told lawmakers during a House Judiciary Committee hearing that foreign disinformation efforts on social media against the U.S. never stopped. He called it a "24/7, 365-days-a-year threat."
Too Much Information
Then there is the issue of whether potential voters could be turned off from this information overload. Does anyone who reads a food and travel blog care about a political endorsement? More importantly, does that endorsement mean anything if the paid influencers disclose that it is a paid endorsement?
"Influencers may have some impact on the election," said Greg Sterling, vice president of marketing insights at Uberall.
"However as we saw in 2016 celebrity endorsements and exhortations to vote had limited impact," added Sterling. "Particular influencers in particular communities may be able to motivate people to vote or might have an impact on voters' decisions but in the aggregate I think their impact will be marginal."
