Roughly one week from today, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) will host its week-long annual meeting in Boston, Massachusetts. Though I am biased as a former President of the organization, it is truly one of the “bucket list” conferences to attend for professionals and enthusiasts in weather, climate, water, and related topics. Thousands of meteorologists, climate scientists, hydrologists, teachers, students, media, and company representatives will descend upon Boston. There is nothing typically newsworthy about a conference location. However, some people were surprised to learn that the meeting, typically held in January, was taking place in a city that could be hampered by winter weather. Typical locations for meetings have included Phoenix, Seattle, New Orleans, Atlanta, or Austin. Why would an weather-savvy organization choose Boston, and what is the outlook for the weather?
BOSTON, MA - DECEMBER 03: Snow coats signage at gate D of Fenway Park as the first winter storm of ... [+]
The simple answer to the first question is history and appropriateness. AMS is hosting its 100th Annual Meeting (its Centennial gathering) and is based in Boston. This is a big deal for the Society.
Founded in 1919, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) is the nation’s premier scientific and professional organization promoting and disseminating information about the atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrologic sciences. Our more than 13,000 members include researchers, educators, students, enthusiasts, broadcasters and other professionals in weather, water, and climate.
While many people are familiar with the AMS from the Certified Broadcast Meteorologist or Seal of Approval logos displayed by their TV meteorologists, the organization is far more than the TV folks even though I am still constantly asked what channel I am on when people find out my profession. AMS publishes some of the top peer-review journals in the field, issues policy statements, informs policymakers, supplements K-16 educational activities, and more. AMS Centennial President Jenni Evans, a professor at Penn State, frames AMS this way:
Over the past century, AMS members have served society in a multitude of ways, most importantly in reducing loss of life and property in the face of disaster. AMS members are often the first scientist a person gets to know, through traditional or online broadcasts. As we observe increases in weather-related disasters, AMS members are on the front lines in providing actionable and scientifically accurate information on the weather of the day and on climate change.
Its iconic headquarters are located at 45 Beacon Street. Why is this address iconic? It was the home of Boston’s third mayor, Harrison Gray Otis and was designed by Charles Bulfinch. Its Federal style architecture represents the architecture of 1806 when it was completed. AMS received the house as a gift.
AMS headquarters in Boston
You might be saying, “ok, I get it but doesn’t the prospect of bad weather place the conference and its attendance numbers at risk?” Sure, it’s winter in Boston. According to the Weather Atlas website:
January is the coldest month in Boston, with the temperature in the low range from 22.3°F (-5.4°C) to 35.8°F (2.1°C). Winter is at its peak, and blizzards are frequent, as are snowstorms. The nights are freezing, and occasionally, the temperature drops lower than 19.4°F (-7°C). January receives the highest snowfall of the year accumulating to 12.9" (327.7mm), from an average of seven snowfall days. There is fairly minimal rainfall in January, falling for approximately eleven days to collect a mildly low 3.4" (86.4mm) in precipitation.
On top of that, many colleagues often joke that whenever there is such a large gathering of meteorologists, the weather is inevitably bad. The AMS itself blogged about this myth in 2011 and the various AMS meetings impacted by weather:
- Mudslides and flooding in 2005 in San Diego
- Ice storms in 1978 and 2007 the only two times that AMS was held in San Antonio
- Tornadic storms in 1993 near Anaheim
- Severe wind chills in New Orleans in 2006
During the meeting that I presided over, it was a near miss. The infamous 2014 Snowpocalypse in Atlanta was days prior to the AMS meeting. As I think about it, there was even an AMS meeting in Seattle that had snow. Snow is actually not as common as you may think in that city.
With the climatology and curse of the AMS looming, many of us are watching the weather closely. At this moment, things look encouraging. The graphic below shows the 500 mb Geopotential Height fields and anomalies on Monday January 13th. Meteorologists look at the midlevels of the atmosphere to identify wave patterns, troughs, and ridges. This pattern suggests that high pressure will likely be present, which typically means warmer conditions and relatively quiet weather. The National Weather Service-Boston agrees with my assessment in its long-range discussion for the beginning of next weekend, “Dry weather follows as high pressure builds into region. Temperatures will be more typical for early January on Thursday, in the 30s, but will moderate once again Friday into the 40s.”
Projected trough and ridge pattern over the U.S. on January 13th, 2019.
Eric Fisher is a colleague in Boston. He is the Chief Meteorologist at WBZ-Boston and reports for CBS News. He told me in a message:
Looks pretty bleak for any meteorologists hoping for a snowstorm during their time here for AMS. Instead, it looks like the event will be held smack-dab in the middle of a January thaw. Wouldn't even rule out a chance to reach 60 degrees here during that window! But a day or two in the 50s certainly appears to be within reach. January weather in Boston can vary quite a bit...in the past decade we've had over 3 feet of snow during the month, or as little as 2" just last year. We're a volatile place in winter these days.
Fisher went on to say, “So in short, I think if we have bad weather during the conference, it may end up being a mild heavy rainstorm!”
We are still a week out from mass arrival of weather scientists to Boston. For now, it looks like the so-called “AMS weather curse” will be kept at bay and the organization can celebrate its 100 years of service and science. I hope that didn’t jinx it.
Updated at 1:08 pm to include a quote from Dr. Jenni Evans
