I am an "old school" college football fan so often complain about the sheer number of Bowl games these days. There is virtually one named after all of my snacks or home services. However, the system "is what it is" as they say so I deal with it and watch them. This Bowl season has already given us something rare, and it has nothing to do with play on the field. The First Responder Bowl, played in Dallas, was canceled because of weather. Only 9 minutes and 52 seconds of game play happened, and there was an 1 hour and 20 min weather delay. Ultimately, the official Bowl Twitter site tweeted that the game would be canceled and ruled a "no-contest." The sponsor of the bowl, ServePro's slogan is "Like It Never Happened," and that is basically what "no-contest" means.
While I am certain this created disappointment and was costly for fans, the teams, and bowl officials, the weather forecast was "spot on" for the event and was warned about for week or so.
I deliberately chose the headline, "It came WITH warning" because too often I see media lazily use the headline, "It came without warning." The most recent example that comes to mind is the Duckboat incident in Missouri earlier in the year. I often find such statements insulting to the National Weather Service, local meteorologists, and the weather community in general. While there are certainly surprise occurrences of weather and occasional "busts" with the models, these days most severe weather threats have some type of warning days to hours in advance thanks to our models, satellites, and radars.
I am someone that goes to Bowl games. I am a professor at the University of Georgia and a three-time alumni of Florida State University. I will be traveling with the "Dawgs" to the Sugar Bowl in a few days. I know the logistics, planning, and financial costs incurred at all levels. I understand the disappointment and hardship the cancellation of the First Responder Bowl likely created for many people so I do not write this critical of any actions taken.
I am simply writing it to point out that there was plenty of warning about the weather. I often rant about the irresponsible ways that people and officials act toward the weather at sporting events. How often do you see tons of fans sitting in stadiums with cloud-to-ground lightning strokes nearby? The answer is "too often." Many fans will sit there in large steel structures while it is lightning, yet only leave if it starts raining. Here is the breaking news: Rain gets you wet in a stadium, lightning can kill you. The irony in the bowl cancellation is that I am sure many first responders appreciate the actions taken given the weather situation. According to an SBNation article,
A lightning strike within eight miles of the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, the game site, caused the bowl to go into a 30-minute delay. That delay extended with each successive lightning strike, and the teams and bowl reps eventually decided just not to play. The delay isn’t up to the bowl game. That eight-mile, 30-minute policy is the NCAA’s.
I wrote a piece several years ago detailing the NCAA lightning policy.
I honor dedicated National Weather Service (NWS)-Fort Worth meteorologists, who are actually working without pay right now because of the government shutdown. I examined the National Weather Service-Forth Worth Twitter evolution of warnings for this event. The figure above represents a very detailed timeline issued on the afternoon of Christmas Eve, two days before the storms. The graphic warns of a severe threat in the area (winds, hail, and tornado potential) for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
However, what was interesting to me is how many days in advance the National Weather Service starting talking about a severe weather threat for the Wednesday -Thursday timeframe. The graphic below was tweeted by NWS-Fort Worth on December 20th, which is almost a week in advance.
Most meteorologists in the broadcast and private sector markets also had a good handle on the weather event as a cold front was projected to approach the area. Nate Johnson is director of weather operations for NBC-owned stations, he posted in social media:
This weather was well-forecast. Our Dallas-Fort Worth stations has been talking about this for a week. This was a foreseeable possibility...
The figure below is another graphic that NWS-Fort Worth tweeted on December 23rd, which is 3 days before the First Responder Bowl. It is very clear to me that the threat for this event was clearly conveyed and with plenty of time.
This brings me to the 2018 American Meteorological Society Information Statement on Weather Safety and Public Venues. It points out,
Each year, millions of Americans invest time and money to attend sporting, entertainment, and recreational events at venues ranging in size from intimate parks to large fairgrounds and stadiums. Attendees are typically focused on the entertainer, activity, sports team, or event at hand, and less so on their surroundings. Situational awareness can be compromised when hazardous weather threatens, and in the worst of cases, loss of life has occurred. In addition, at many indoor events, and almost all outdoor events, sheltering options against life-threatening weather are limited or nonexistent. In the U.S., hazardous weather kills attendees at entertainment venues each year, and litigation in these instances exceeds tens of millions of dollars.
I was one of the scientists involved in writing this report. We also issued a set of best practices. One of them recommended, "generating a weather plan in advance with an actionable set of decision triggers against a portfolio of weather risk, with a process to routinely evaluate and update the plan." Weather information is too good these days to operate on the "plan of hope or let's wait and see."
