If you are just waking up this morning, it may be news to you that the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Bertha, has formed. The Atlantic hurricane season technically starts on June 1st, but nature has already given us Arthur and Bertha. Here are 3 things that you need to know about the latest tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Berth (May 27th, 2020)
It will be a quick storm. The National Hurricane Center discussion issued at 8:30 am on Wednesday said, “The system will be moving inland very shortly and little, if any, additional strengthening is expected....Once inland, the small tropical cyclone should weaken rapidly and dissipated over central North Carolina on Thursday.” The storm developed quickly from a tropical system that the National Hurricane Center had been tracking for over a day. Wind information from Doppler radar and buoys indicated that the storm was producing tropical storm (> than 39 mph) winds.
It could affect the historic SpaceX launch at Kennedy Space Center. SpaceX, in conjunction with NASA and other partners, was slated to launch astronauts from U.S. soil for the first time in almost a decade. I wrote in Forbes on Monday that a “tropical system” could hinder the launch. At the time of writing, the launch is still planned but the 45th Weather Squadron, which does weather support for launches, currently has a 40% probability of violating weather constraints. The primary reasons for the weather concern are flight through precipitation, the anvil cloud rule, and the cumulus cloud rule. Specifically, the forecast guidance from the Squadron’s website says, “On launch day, residual moisture (from the tropical system) will still be present and mid-level steering flow will be westerly, meaning afternoon convection will travel eastward towards the Space Coast.” With convection (possible thunderstorms), I suspect there would also be concerns about the rocket triggering lightning as it makes its way to space. For the latest information on weather conditions and the launch, I recommend monitoring this website.
Outlook for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season
An early start to hurricane season doesn’t necessarily signal anything about the rest of the season. The 2020 season is projected to be an active one based on the projections of the Tropical Weather Project at Colorado State University (CSU), the Penn State University Earth System Science Center and NOAA. According to the nation’s weather and climate agency, “NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a likely range of 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).” An average season will produce around 12 named storms (6 becoming hurricanes). We are already up to 2.
However, I would caution against drawing conclusions simply based on the early season activity. The predictors like El Nino/La Nina phase, sea surface temperatures, and other factors are certainly bullish on an active season. The CSU group’s website has some excellent information on what factors are used in seasonal hurricane outlooks. It is always good to remember that it only takes one storm to create havoc in any given season. A recent debate has also emerged on whether the concept of a hurricane season is meaningful given the recent pre-June starts over the past decade. I wrote in Forbes on why it is too early to start suggesting that the season be moved up. However, as my colleague Dr. Barb Mayes Boustead would likely agree, impacts are the important focus with hazardous weather rather than artificially defined boundaries on nature.
Stay safe.
Forecast track for Bertha
