From Florida to Virginia, states are recovering from multiple punches thrown at them by Hurricane Michael. Meteorologically, Michael had the third-lowest pressure reading of any storm to strike the United States mainland. At 919 millibars, it ranks behind an unnamed Labor Day hurricane (1935) and Hurricane Camille (1969). The jaw-dropping images coming from Mexico Beach, Florida and Panama City Beach, Florida are indicative of what meteorologists like me would expect from a storm with 150+ mph winds striking a populated area. Locations well inland from Marianna, Florida to Roanoke, Virginia also experienced significant damage. As a proud Georgian, I am aware of the importance of agriculture to my home state. There is an under-reported and hidden tragedy that may not be apparent in your newsfeed or local news. Many Georgia farmers have experienced devastating losses, and you may be affected too.
Once the track of Hurricane Michael became apparent from our weather models, I was immediately concerned about the potential impacts of the storm on Georgia peanuts, pecans, cotton and livestock. Southwest Georgia is an agriculturally-intensive region. You can see that in the Center Pivot Irrigation analyses (below) conducted by my former University of Georgia graduate student Dr. Marcus Williams in his doctoral dissertation. A slow-moving Hurricane Florence caused significant damage to poultry and hog farming operations in the Carolinas earlier in 2018. Millions of chickens, pigs, and turkeys were killed by that storm-related flooding primarily. Hurricane Michael had a completely different meteorological "personality," but it was clear that the agricultural landscape of southwest Georgia was going to be vulnerable.
Since Michael made landfall as a strong Category 4 storm, it was clear to me tropical storm and hurricane intensity that winds were going to impact southwestern Georgia. A fast moving and powerful hurricane will not produce multiple feet of rain (as we saw with Florence or Harvey), but it allows strong winds to penetrate inland. The image below from the NOAA Suomi NPP satellite is a powerful indicator of the inland extent of Hurricane Michael. The "power outage" footprint is clearly observed. Power lines were not the only things lost. Agricultural productivity, assets, and hours of hard work by proud Georgia farmers were also lost.
Poultry contributes $23.3 billion to Georgia's economy and has reported the most widespread power outages and loss. To date, the GDA has received reports of 84 chicken houses, estimated to have held more than two million chickens, that were destroyed. The farms, dairies and processing plants impacted were in Appling, Colquitt, Coffee, Decatur, Evans, Houston, Mitchell, Randolph, Lee and Wilcox Counties.
The damage was not limited to poultry. Cotton is the top row crop in the state and ranks second in the nation. Winds from Hurricane Michael "drove much of the fiber to the ground for a total loss or tangled the cotton making it much harder to extract clean lint during the ginning process" according to the Commissioner's office. According to the press release, assessment of vital pecan and peanut harvest are still ongoing. Pam Knox, interim director of the Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network (AEMN) and an expert on agricultural meteorology, told me in a message:
Always tough to make early estimates because farmers are not able to assess all areas of their property yet, but early estimates are $1 billion to maybe $2 billion. Pecans lost a significant percentage of their crop and there was tremendous tree damage. Cotton the biggest loser, hit right at peak harvest time when the plants are particularly vulnerable to wind. Peanuts not sure yet because a lot are still in the ground, but a number of peanut storage facilities were hit so nowhere to put them once harvested.
Knox also indicated that a UGA weather station in the AEMN observed a 115 mph wind gust near Donalsonville, Georgia.
If you look at the table below from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (based on 2015 numbers), Georgia ranked 1st in broilers, peanuts, pecans, and spring onions. It ranked 2nd in cotton. Basic economic principles suggest that reduced supply of these commodities will impact farmers. However, that is not all. Think about how many things you used with peanuts, pecans, poultry, or cotton today. This tragedy affects you too if low supply impacts price.
