As a meteorologist, I find that people are very willing to share things with me about their weather experiences. A common one is that they can “feel” bad weather coming in their knees or other joints. There is actually some plausibility with this observation because changes in barometric pressure, often a signal of changing weather, has been linked with joint pain. However, a new study by a team of researchers may be the most robust study to date on what has been a somewhat inconclusive or controversial topic. Here are the things that you need to know about the “Cloudy With A Chance of Pain” study.
Chronic pain may be linked to weather
Professor David Schultz is a professor in the Centre for Crisis Studies and Mitigation, and Centre for Atmospheric Science at The University of Manchester. He is also one of the most thorough and effective researchers within the field of atmospheric related sciences. When I saw that Professor Schultz, the author of the outstanding science communication book Eloquent Science, was one of the scientists involved in the study, it immediately had enough credibility for me to take a closer look. In my discussion with Professor Schultz, he pointed me to a website summarizing the study, which is published in the journal Digital Medicine. While the formal title of the study is “How the weather affects the pain of citizen scientists using a smartphone app,” the cleverly named “Cloudy With A Chance of Pain” will resonate with the public because your cousin or my mother probably doesn’t read the peer review literature. The key findings from the study as stated on its website:
Analyzing 5.1 million pain reports, researchers compared, within each individual, the weather on days a significant increase in pain was experienced to the weather on days no such pain increase was experienced. They found days with higher humidity, lower pressure, and stronger winds are more likely associated with high pain days, a result consistent with the beliefs of many of the participants. A deeper understanding of the effects of the environment on pain may allow scientists to better understand the mechanisms that cause pain and allow the development of new and more effective treatments for those who live with pain.
The team of University of Manchester and their colleagues sampled 13,000 United Kingdom residents that have chronic pain. Using their smartphones, the study participants logged daily pain intensity, and then GPS technology would colocate their data entry with local weather conditions. The conclusions summarized above come from 5.1 million pain reports.
My natural question was “Ok, what sets this study apart from previous studies and why is it so important? Professor Schultz detailed some of the most important implications of the study in a recent Twitter thread. Here is a summary of some of his key points:
- The largest study of its kind in terms of participants and length of data collection time,
- Hourly weather data and GPS location meant better weather data than previous studies,
- 10 measures of well-being (e.g., waking up tired, physical activity, time spent outside, mood) were collected and lays the foundation for future research, and
- The weather-pain relationship was confirmed using 2 different methods, which adds to the credibility of the findings
Schultz answered the question about significance of the study this way,
Our results suggest that humidity and pressure are the most important to people's pain. (Wind is related to the gradient in pressure, so is associated with the pressure.) These results start to point to the reasons for pain in the body, leading to ways to alleviate pain....By understanding how the weather affects people's pain, it gives patients the knowledge that today's pain might be out of their control, if it is exacerbated by the weather conditions.
Schultz also shared screenshots of comments in a UK newspaper in which people confirmed the findings of the study and lamented that their doctors often dismissed their claims. For some commenters, there was a strong sense of “Duh, we knew this already.”
The results of this study, funded by Versus Arthritis, certainly suggests that a routine weather forecast may contain more guidance than whether to cancel a soccer game or grab an umbrella. For more information, the team has produced an information video at this link.
Smartphone and GPC technology was used in the study to link weather and pain reports
