One of the interesting things about being a scientist is that people routinely share ideas about how to solve the world's great science problems. Over the years, many great ideas have come from people that were not experts on a topic, so I am not suggesting that "diamond in the rough" ideas are not worthy. My 25 years of experience as a research meteorologist, however, have revealed that many ideas are a bit "fringy" or based on bad science. One of the ideas that makes the rounds in my inbox is "Why can't we just drop a nuclear bomb inside a hurricane to blow it out before it reaches populated areas?"
Apparently, I am not alone in receiving this question. A version of the same question is in the top 5 of the Tropical Cyclone Modification and Myths website of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division "Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)" page. With the start of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season only a few weeks away (June 1st), here's an answer to that question.
One of my doctoral students, Andrew Thomas, is studying hurricane intensity processes of landfalling tropical cyclones at the University of Georgia. The Penn State University-trained meteorologist posted in social media, "The fact that this (question) made it onto FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS is...astounding." My only response to Andrew is "welcome to our world." Dr. Christopher Landsea is the Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch at the National Hurricane Center. He provides a solid debunk of why we can't just "nuke" hurricanes. Landsea writes on the NOAA Tropical Myths website:
Apart from the fact that this might not even alter the storm, this approach neglects the problem that the released radioactive fallout would fairly quickly move with the tradewinds to affect land areas and cause devastating environmental problems. Needless to say, this is not a good idea.
It is useful to break down how a hurricane gets its energy before diving into why nuking one is a bad idea. A key ingredient for hurricanes (or any type of tropical cyclone) is warm water. I like to describe hurricanes as gigantic heat engines, and the fuel supply is warm, moist air. Typically, storms require temperatures of at least 80 degrees F within the top 165 feet of the ocean.
Because of evaporation, water vapor is transported vertically into the atmosphere. Under the proper conditions, condensation (water vapor changes to cloud water) occurs. During the phase changes of water, a hidden type of energy called latent heat is often exchanged. As cloud water forms, latent heat is released to the air. That process warms the air column, produces rising motion and further contributes to the evolution and strengthening of powerful thunderstorms within the eyewall and rainbands of a hurricane. NASA has reported that the emergence of towering thunderstorms, called "hot towers," might indicate an intensification process because of the massive release of latent heat energy (graphic below).
The discussion of hurricane energetics sets up why some people suggest "nuking" the storm to blow it out. Dr. Landsea offers a bit more insight on the NOAA website:
A fully developed hurricane can release heat energy at a rate of 5 to 20x1013 watts and converts less than 10% of the heat into the mechanical energy of the wind. The heat release is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes. According to the 1993 World Almanac, the entire human race used energy at a rate of 1013 watts in 1990, a rate less than 20% of the power of a hurricane....If we think about mechanical energy, the energy at humanity's disposal is closer to the storm's, but the task of focusing even half of the energy on a spot in the middle of a remote ocean would still be formidable. Brute force interference with hurricanes doesn't seem promising
Landsea also points out that there are pressure considerations that are difficult and impractical from a modification standpoint. Specifically, he says:
For normal atmospheric pressure, there is about ten metric tons (1000 kilograms per ton) of air bearing down on each square meter of surface. In the strongest hurricanes there are nine. To change a Category 5 hurricane into a Category 2 hurricane you would have to add about a half ton of air for each square meter inside the eye, or a total of a bit more than half a billion (500,000,000) tons for a 20 km radius eye. It's difficult to envision a practical way of moving that much air around.
And for those with the idea about intervening with developing tropical waves or depressions, that's not so easy either. Only about 5% of these systems that form each year develop into hurricanes in a typical year. How do you determine which one to "nuke"? You can't just nuke them all. I invite you to visit the NOAA Tropical Myths and Modification page for a discussion of other ideas that have come along over the years.
