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Lessons From History On How News Spreads During An Outbreak, And How Social Media Can Help

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There have been media reports that have compared COVID-19 to the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918-19, which began at the end of the First World War. It became a pandemic that spread to nearly every corner of the world. However, these comparisons are also somewhat misleading and even dangerous. For one, the COVID-19 isn't nearly as lethal as Spanish Flu, which infected 500 million people around the world, or roughly 27% of the world population at the time – and may have killed as many as 50 million people.

However, the more important lesson from that historic event could be in what effectively helped contain Spanish Flu. As the BBC noted last week, Bristol Bay in Alaska survived the flu almost unscathed by closing schools, banning public gatherings and limiting access to the town. And we've seen that similar efforts have helped contain COVID-19, more commonly known as the coronavirus disease — which is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

The world is far more interconnected now, so it is difficult to completely isolate one from the world, but it should also be remembered that the flu earned its "Spanish" moniker because Spain – a neutral country that wasn't censoring its media – was the first to report on it.

Today the sharing of information, especially on social media, has put coronavirus in the spotlight – even again if it is overshadowing a far more deadly flu.

"Social media has certainly played a large role in alerting people to the spread of COVID-19 and how people are dealing with it," explained Dr. Crystal Riley, a lecturer of health administration at New York University's Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service. "You have people from around the world who are documenting their experiences on vlogs and other platforms and sharing them publicly."

Social media and related technology is allowing those who are isolated or quarantined not to be cut off from the world.

"These are people who are waiting to be screened, who have been in quarantine, people who are describing how they access food via delivery apps because they can't go out in public," added Riley. "They're sharing stories and personal experiences within minutes that may have taken mainstream media several days or even weeks to convey. Using social media to build awareness around best practices for coronavirus could certainly help in containing spread, but only if the information relayed is reliable and accurate, which hasn't necessarily been the case up to this point."

Finally, social media could be the best way for those tracking and evening fighting this outbreak to stay connected in ways not possible with the 1918 Spanish Flu, 1957-58 Asian Flu or even the H1N1/09 Flu Pandemic of 2009-2010.

"Social media provides an opportunity for healthcare professionals and other experts to correct some of the misinformation that is being disseminated by mainstream media and other forums," noted Dr. Annette Bourgault, assistant professor within the College of Nursing at the University of Central Florida.

"For example, footage in the mainstream news shows people wearing face masks in public settings, yet the public is not made aware that hand washing is the number one prevention strategy," she added. "Through social media, links for credible, evidence-based health information can be disseminated quickly to a large volume of people, making it a valuable tool when increased vigilance or action is required in a timely manner."

Good With The Bad

As has been reported, misinformation continues to spread on social media – often more quickly than the actual virus. While there has been much "good" information coming from the Centers of Disease Control (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO), there is still too much mixed messaging coming from these reputable sources as well.

"I am concerned by a report I saw on Twitter on March 3, 2020 about a Washington Post story that the World Health Organization is reporting that the death rate for COVID-19 is 3.4%," said Thomas LaVeist, dean of the School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine at Tulane University.

"That is an extremely high death rate and it is probably an overestimate," warned LaVeist. "I am concerned that it will unnecessarily alarm people."

He added that this could be case of bad math, because there is no way to know the number of people infected at this point. Thus the spreading of such numbers on a social media platform is unnecessary and even dangerous.

"We do not have a comprehensive community screening program so there are likely people who have been infected and may even have symptoms, but WHO does not have a record of those cases," said LaVeist. "So there are likely more cases of COVID-19 that have been documented."

Another example of how not to use social media could be the Surgeon General's posting about the surgical masks, which LaVeist said includes contradictory arguments. "One the one hand he is saying that the over-the-counter masks that people are buying will not protect them from COVID-19. And, on the other hand he is saying that by purchasing masks people are using resources that health professionals need."

Such mixed messages on a social platform could further confuse individuals.

"All the masks that health professionals use are not the 'over-the-counter' masks that the general public is buying from Walgreens or Amazon," said LaVeist. "Purchases of these masks have no impact on mask supplies for health professionals. It is true that the over-the-counter masks are unlikely to prevent wearers from being infected. However, if someone has been infected by COVID-19, use of even the over-the-counter mask would likely lessen their ability to infect others."

For this reason there will likely be useful and less useful – as well as downright misinformation – that continues to be posted on social media.

"Just as viruses can rapidly spread, which isn't good, so too can news and information via social media (and that) can be good or bad," said David Stuart, senior director of product marketing at ZeroFOX.

"As long as individuals and organizations apply smart practices for disseminating and consuming such information, and take appropriate measures to protect themselves, the immediacy and viral nature of social media can be put to good use to rapidly inform the public in any emergency or outbreak," Stuart added. "Cyber protection measures should include the continual monitoring for fakes and impersonators, who often exploit these same mediums."

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